VISAKHAPATNAM/HYDERABAD: After a prolonged drought and months of sweltering heat, the eagerly-awaited monsoon rain hit Kerala on Monday and is all set to reach Andhra Pradesh by June 5-6 and bring cheers to the farming community.
“The south-west monsoon has reached Kerala and we expect it to cover coastal Andhra within five/six days,” a Met department official said. According to weathermen, the conditions are favourable for further advancement of monsoon. “Any further advancement of the monsoon will depend upon the intensity and direction of movement of the depression. The south-west monsoon should take another five to six days to hit AP,” Andhra University meteorological and oceanography department professor O Bhanu Kumar told. It would take another 45 days to cover the entire country, he added.
He predicted better monsoon than last year’s. “Though last year’s monsoon made a good beginning, there was a drastic loss of almost 25 per cent of the expected rainfall as for nearly 21 days after the monsoon set in, we did not get showers,” he pointed out. According to the Met officials, Monday’s monsoon rain covered most parts of the South Arabian sea, Kerala as well as some parts of Tamil Nadu.
“Depending upon the intensity, it can advance by a day in the state. We are monitoring the low pressure system. As per normal course, it will take five days to enter Rayalaseema,” said R V Subba Rao of Met department, Hyderabad. Experts said the speed with which the systems travel depend on conducive weather patterns like depressions or low pressures in the Arabian Sea. “The onset of monsoon means that the northeasterly winds have replaced the southwesterly winds which bring in hot weather,” Prof Bhanu Kumar said.
The current Met analysis and numerical weather prediction models suggest that isolated to scattered rain or thundershowers activity accompanied by thunder squalls are likely over plains of northwest India in the next 3-4 days. Isolated rain or thundershowers would occur over AP, north Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra.
However, one worry bothering the weathermen is the depression in the Arabian Sea which could develop into a cyclone and affect the monsoon progress. “Due to a storm brewing in the Arabian Sea, the progression of the monsoon is expected to be along the western coast and interior parts of the peninsula, which would get rains later,” an official said.
Meanwhile, the onset of monsoon sets the stage for the four-month-long rainy season to rebound economy with agriculture as its prime engine of growth. “The monsoon rains are crucial for India as around 60 per cent of farmlands are rain-fed and good rainfall this year could help increase farm produce which in turn is expected to bring down inflation,” Prof Bhanu Kumar said.
Last month the IMD had forecast normal monsoon. The normal monsoon forecast is expected to bring cheer to over 235 million farmers who had faced drought last year due to failed monsoon.
TOI
